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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
Although there are no rate-setting policy meetings from G10 currency central banks this week, policymakers from six banks are still active in a number of ways. In particular, Fed policymakers are delivering several speeches this week as they attempt to signal that two or three more rate hikes in 2018 remains the base case. Conversely, ECB policymakers have been sounding increasingly dovish, meaning this week’s speeches could begin to suggest that the bank will extend asset purchases beyond the current September deadline. The Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions in the UK is likely to indicate that falling inflation has raised concerns for businesses and thereby further softened the BOE’s position.
On the other side of the world, RBA policymakers have been increasingly optimistic lately, despite falling inflation and wage growth. Dissipating trade war concerns are likely the source of this optimism, which means that the reality of weaker underlying economic fundamentals may set in soon. BOC policymakers have also sounded a bit more optimistic of late, but this too can be tied to diminished trade war concerns. Perhaps the most interesting effort to sound hawkish comes from the Norges Bank, where policymakers appear to genuinely want to raise rates this summer but are struggling to reverse their years-long dovish streak.
This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s central bank data. Subscribe here.
The Prattle Team