Minutes, Speeches to Signal Upcoming Fed, BOE Policy

  • Monday, July 2, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

Even though the RBA and Riksbank are both holding policy meetings this week, the biggest market movers are likely to be the Fed meeting minutes and a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney. The Fed minutes are likely to signal ongoing neutral or slightly hawkish policy, which is consistent with the stated path of two more rate hikes this year. Conversely, Carney may struggle to clearly signal the BOE’s intentions to raise rates later this summer, considering that inflation continues to fall back toward target and economic growth remains virtually nonexistent.

The RBA and Riksbank policy meetings are both likely to result in rate holds. RBA policymakers are likely to sound fairly neutral as inflation remains a bit below target. Riksbank policymakers are also likely to sound neutral, although compared to recent trend this could be perceived as fairly hawkish for an economy that has been bolstered by negative rates for years.

With inflation across the Eurozone reaching 2% in June, ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet’s speech will likely indicate increased confidence in the bank’s plans to taper asset purchases. Two BOJ policymakers, Yutaka Harada and Takako Masai, will speak for the first time since late 2017. Their speeches may address lowering the BOJ’s inflation target, but those signals are unlikely to dramatically clarify the bank’s plans moving forward.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s central bank data. Subscribe here.

The Prattle Team

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