Sentiment Analytics on Fed, ECB, RBA Speeches

  • Tuesday, November 13, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

After a torrent of communications earlier this fall, central bankers appear to be slowing down a bit this week—only the Fed, ECB, and RBA are active. As expected, Fed policymakers held rates last week. This week Brainard and Quarles will likely echo recent slightly hawkish Fed tone and further signal a December rate hike. The ECB is likely to be the bigger market mover; four policymakers are slated to deliver seven speeches that could err neutral or slightly dovish amid weakening Eurozone growth. Meanwhile, the only RBA policymaker set to speak is Guy Debelle, who may sound slightly hawkish.

Given the light week in central banking, markets may take the time to reflect on last week’s policy meetings and the U.S. election. Since none of the policy meetings produced surprises, the election could have a larger economic impact. In particular, the Republican party’s firm grasp on the Senate suggests President Trump will continue his harsh trade rhetoric. However, the Democratic party’s newfound control of the House could accelerate infrastructure spending and price controls on prescription drugs. Although these outcomes are far from certain and do not necessarily have systemic macro effects, they are worth note for sector-based investing and future growth forecasting.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s Central Bank Analytics. Subscribe here.

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