In a late July post by Prattle, we noted that a September rate hike was possible, but December was more likely. This post echoed the sentiments made by Prattle’s Evan Schnidman and Bill MacMillan during their July interview with Bloomberg, where they estimated that the chances of a September rate increase were certainly no higher than 50/50. At the time, the majority of economists–over 70%–were predicting a September hike–putting Prattle’s predictions in the dovish minority.
But the winds of analyst opinion have shifted since then, as traders now see the likelihood of a September hike as 32%.
Prattle was able to make this prediction in July–and opposed to popular opinion–because of the particular nature of our data-driven analyses. Based on an unbiased, comprehensive and algorithmic textual analysis of Fed dispatches, our forecasts have distinct advantages over current Fed watching techniques that give us a unique handle on the Fed–and the financial markets.
Interested in learning more? Here’s a look into how our process works.
(“The Eccles Building”; by AgnosticPreachersKid)