Quantitative Forecasts of This Week’s Central Bank Speeches

  • Monday, May 13, 2019

Welcome to “The Cyborg Analyst” by Prattle. This report provides weekly, quantitative insights on G-10 currency central banks.

The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

Although none of the G10 currency central banks have policy meetings, this week’s slate of speeches could certainly move markets. Fed and BOE policymakers are particularly active, with Fed speakers likely to sound neutral or slightly dovish in reflection of their concern about the financial market impact of the ongoing trade war. BOE policymakers are also likely to sound slightly dovish as they look to downside risks associated with possible future Brexit policy. ECB policymakers could strike a similarly neutral or slightly dovish tone, as they continue to signal further stimulus could be warranted despite seeing a few bright spots in the economy.

Following the RBA electing not to cut rates last week, policymaker Michele Bullock is unlikely to clearly explain why they held rates but may signal a timeline for a future cut. Unlike their Aussie counterparts, Riksbank policymakers are still attempting to convince markets that their next move will be a rate hike. That said, the bank’s increasingly dovish rhetoric suggests there may be further delays to any future policy tightening.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s Central Bank Analytics. 

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