Quantitative Forecasts of This Week’s Central Bank Releases

  • Monday, August 7, 2017

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
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We have officially hit the August doldrums. In the only scheduled policy meeting this week, the RBNZ is likely to hold rates and issue a neutral statement. Some analysts have speculated about a RBNZ rate hike, but weak jobs numbers last week coupled with the bank’s neutral sentiment suggest that is highly unlikely in the near future. Nearby, a couple of RBA policymakers are likely to sound similarly neutral or a bit more dovish as they face a rising AUD that threatens to curb Aussie growth.

Three Fed policymakers are slated to speak this week, with Dudley and Bullard likely to allude to forthcoming details regarding the policy of unwinding the balance sheet. However, it remains unlikely that any details will be revealed before Jackson Hole. The only other salient G10 central bank communication this week is the BOE’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions. Like other recent BOE communications, this is likely to be a bit more dovish than comparable documents from earlier in the year. This neutral or slightly dovish sentiment is likely to reinforce the message from last week’s BOE meeting, which highlighted downside risks and weaker growth forecasts as reasons to hold rates for the foreseeable future.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s central bank data. Subscribe here.

The Prattle Team

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