Quantitative Forecasts for RBA, Riksbank Policy Meetings

  • Monday, July 1, 2019

Welcome to “The Cyborg Analyst” by Prattle. This report provides weekly, quantitative insights on G-10 currency central banks.

The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Weekcentral bank communications analytics research

While the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. keeps trading volumes lower than usual this week, central bankers around the world will remain active. Of the two Fed policymakers slated to speak—Williams and Mester—neither is likely to clearly indicate whether a July rate cut is a certainty. Similarly, Ben Broadbent from the BOE is likely to hold the neutral line amid continuing political turmoil in the UK, with Brexit hanging in the balance. The BOJ Opinion Survey is unlikely to move markets, but it could echo the bank’s recent messaging about the need for ongoing stimulus. This week’s two policy meetings include a likely rate hold from the Riksbank and the strong possibility of the RBA cutting rates for the second meeting in a row. The RBA meeting will almost certainly be the biggest market mover, regardless of whether it results in policymakers cutting rates while sounding neutral-to-hawkish or holding rates while sounding dovish, the former being the more likely scenario.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s Central Bank Analytics.