Quantifying New Fed, ECB and BOJ Policy Signals

  • Monday, January 14, 2019

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

Most of the G-10 currency central banks have started the year off slowly, but the Fed is making up for it with a flurry of Fedspeak. This week, five more Fed policymakers will weigh in on the Fed slowing the pace of tightening in the face of jittery financial markets, despite relatively strong economic data. These policymakers will likely reiterate Chair Powell’s recent effort to soften Fed rhetoric and indicate that further tightening may be on hold. Across the pond, the Bank of England will release its Credit Conditions Survey and Bank Liabilities Survey. Both surveys are likely to continue the bank’s dovish sentiment trend by showing signs of weakness in UK financial markets, which remain clouded by Brexit uncertainty.

In his remarks before European Parliament this week, ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to sound neutral but could err dovish due to flagging Eurozone growth, which has elevated risks in southern Europe. At the BOJ, Governor Kuroda will speak at a G20 Symposium in Tokyo, where he could hint at 2019 stimulus policies but is unlikely to announce anything new. Elsewhere, most central bankers are remaining quiet, likely waiting to see if late-2018 financial market volatility rears its head again in 2019.

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