Quantifying Fed Chair Speculation Amid Four Policy Meetings

  • Monday, October 23, 2017

Welcome to “The Cyborg Analyst” weekly report by Prattle. This report includes analysis of a variety of subjects in addition to central banking events. Keep an eye out for quantitative insights on publicly traded companies, regulatory bodies, and more in the future. Sign up for free access to Prattle to receive the full Cyborg Analyst report weekly.

The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

Of the four central bank policy meetings this week, the most likely one to move markets is the ECB. Policymakers are set to announce tapering of bond purchases, but counter this decrease in stimulus with a substantial extension to the ECB asset purchase program. The BOC is the other central bank that could move markets, but, after a surprise rate hike last month, the odds of a third hike in rapid succession are extremely small. The Riksbank and Norges Bank are both likely to hold rates as well. RBA policymakers may shift their tone less hawkish and more neutral, in keeping with the current theme of global central banks.

The other big story in central banking this week will surround the appointment of the next Fed Chair. Months of speculation have reached a near fever pitch as the Trump administration has been hinting that it will nominate a Chair in the coming days/weeks. Prattle worked with the Financial Times to perform an analysis of the likely candidates and found that, although leading candidates like Warsh and Powell have sent rather different signals than Yellen, neither would represent a full regime shift in the way that John Taylor or Gary Cohn could.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s central bank data. Subscribe here.

The Prattle Team

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