Quantifying BOJ, BOE Rate Holds, G10 Central Bank Chatter

  • Tuesday, October 30, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week

Although nine of the G-10 currency central banks are active this week, only the BOJ and BOE have policy meetings. The BOJ meeting is unlikely to roil markets, considering that BOJ policymakers will likely hold rates and issue a neutral or slightly hawkish statement. The BOE is likely to hold rates, as policymakers’ readiness to combat Brexit effects manifests as a neutral-sounding policy statement. The ECB financial statement and lone speech could sound a bit more hawkish, though recent sentiment from ECB policymakers has been declining toward neutral. The SNB knows a few things about neutrality, and this week’s speech by Thomas Jordan is likely to demonstrate just that.

In North America, Poloz and Wilkins will testify before Canadian Parliament, where they are likely to sound slightly dovish despite hiking rates just last week. Fed policymakers are extremely quiet in the week leading up to the U.S. midterm elections; Charlie Evans, the only scheduled speaker, is likely to sound fairly neutral despite recent Fed trend marching increasingly hawkish.

The lone Aussie policymaker speaking this week is Michele Bullock, who is likely to sound neutral or slightly hawkish. On the other side of the world, the Norges Bank has been rapidly trending hawkish, and, while this week’s speeches will likely support this trend, the financial stability report may be more neutral. In neighboring Sweden, policymakers are also concerned about elevated inflation, but slow growth has kept their tone on the dovish side of neutral. This week’s meeting minutes could be an opportunity to send a more neutral or even hawkish message.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s Central Bank Analytics. Subscribe here.

The Prattle Team

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