New Year, New Central Bank Policy Signals

  • Monday, January 7, 2019

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

With the holiday season in the rearview mirror and the new year ahead, four of the G10 currency central banks are active this week. The Fed, ECB and Riksbank are all issuing meeting minutes, while the BOC is holding a policy meeting. In an effort to temper expectations of future rate hikes, the BOC is likely to hold rates and issue fairly neutral remarks, perhaps echoing the Fed mantra about data dependency. The Fed minutes, which are likely to indicate such data dependency, may convey slight hawkish overtones that the six policymakers speaking this week will attempt to counteract by sounding dovish. ECB policymakers are likely to sound overtly neutral as they look to downplay concerns about Italy and indicate no impending policy moves. Finally, minutes from last month’s Riksbank policy meeting will shed some light on the bank’s first rate hike in years, even in the face of soft inflation data. These minutes will likely signal a long run desire to normalize policy but no immediate pressure to hike again.

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