Fed and RBA Minutes: What the Data Shows

  • Monday, October 15, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

No G10 currency central banks have policy meetings this week, but markets will nonetheless be watching minutes released by both the Fed and RBA in addition to a speech by BOE Governor Carney. The Fed minutes are likely to sound a bit dated, reflecting conditions before recent market turmoil (and recent political pressure from President Trump to maintain low rates), but they are likely to indicate a December rate hike is likely. The RBA minutes will almost certainly be more neutral or even slightly dovish as Aussie policymakers continue to express concern about the economic effects of a trade war.

When BOE Governor Mark Carney takes the dais at the NY Economic Club this week, the markets will certainly be listening. In his speech, Carney will have to strike a balance between hawkishly talking down elevated inflation and dovishly indicating that the BOE stands ready to support the UK economy through ongoing Brexit tumult. Finally, ECB policymakers Praet and de Guindos are likely to strike a neutral or slightly hawkish tone as they reflect the ECB’s current wait-and-see approach.

This is an abbreviated version of the Cyborg Analyst. The full weekly report contains detailed analysis based on Prattle’s Central Bank Analytics. Subscribe here.

The Prattle Team

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