European Banks to Hold Rates Ahead of Likely Fed Hike

  • Tuesday, December 11, 2018

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The Most Important Central Bank Releases This Week
central bank communications analytics research

The ECB, Norges Bank, and Swiss National Bank are holding policy meetings this week, and all are likely to hold rates. Of the three, the ECB will likely be the biggest market mover. Eurozone economic data will be released early in the week, and the ECB will issue a policy statement coupled with several policymaker speeches later in the week. These remarks could signal the level of concern among ECB policymakers as they look curtail stimulus in the wake of slowing growth.

The Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank are both likely to hold rates as well. Both could signal that tighter policy remains possible in 2019, but the language of each bank is likely to sound comparatively more dovish than other recent communications. Norges Bank policymakers are combating soft inflation data on the heels of falling oil prices, while SNB policymakers recognize that downside risks across the Eurozone once again threaten to strengthen the CHF. In this instance, dovish policy—or at least dovish policy pronouncements—may be necessary to combat currency strength.

At the RBA, Christopher Kent’s speech addressing the influence of U.S. monetary policy on Australia is likely to reinforce the RBA’s current slightly dovish policy stance. Finally, although Fed policymakers will remain silent this week ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, Fed policy will be top of mind due to an anticipated fourth 2018 rate hike coupled with likely downward revisions to the 2019 rate path.

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